blueball.gif (262 bytes) Thurs 26th April 2001 - Stat attack
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Stats, stats and more stats. John Heyda, our resident statistician from Middletown, Ohio has genereated the following bundles of facts and figures ahead of this Saturdays promotion party at Ninian Park.

Unbeaten home runs.

Not only would a win or draw against Shrewsbury on April 28 guarantee City their first unbeaten season at home since 1946-47, it would extend the club's current unbeaten run at Ninian Park to 24 games. That would establish a new postwar club record, eclipsing the 23 in a row City reeled off from the beginning of the 1946-47 season through the second home match of the 1947-48 season.

Here are details on the five longest unbeaten home runs in Cardiff City's postwar history:

* 23 in a row -- September 7, 1946 to September 6, 1947.  City got through their entire 1946-47 home schedule without a defeat (18 wins and three defeats).  Took the Division 3-S championship on the strength of a 30-6-6 mark, topping the table by nine points (when a win was worth but two points) and winning promotion to the old Second Division by nine points.  The 1947-48 club managed to get through their first two home matches without defeat to run the streak to 23 before Tottenham Hotspur topped the Bluebirds 3-0 at Ninian Park on September 6, 1947.

* 23 in a row -- May 6, 2000 to date.  City finished the ill-fated 1999-2000 campaign with a rousing 1-0 win home over Bristol Rovers, then hosted their first 22 league matches in 2000-2001 without once tasting defeat.  With but Shrewsbury left on the home card, City show 15 wins to go with seven draws and a massive goal differential of +34 (53 GF/19 GA)!  Some very close calls, with last minute heroics required to stave off near-certain defeat against the likes of Hartlepool, Lincoln, and Orient.  Like the last three great postwar home unbeaten runs, this one looked set to end at 22 when season-long table-toppers Chesterfield took a 3-2 Easter Monday lead into stoppage time before 13,602 at Ninian Park.  Then David Gabbidon put a beautiful aerial through to Kevin Evans, who headed home most magnificently to salvage the streak-saving point.

* 22 in a row -- August 20, 1951 to September 17, 1952.  City put together a run of 19 in a row without defeat at home (17 wins, 2 draws) to finish the 1951-52 promotion-winning campaign, then extended the streak to 22 by getting through their first three First Division 1952-53 matches without defeat (a win and two draws).  The string ended on September 17, 1952 with a 2-1 setback at the hands of West Bromwich Albion.  

* 22 in a row -- September 11, 1982 to August 29, 1983.  The 1982-83 Bluebirds, just up from Division Three, lost their Ninian Park opener, but then went unbeaten the rest of the way at home (17 wins, five draws).  Included in the run: a seven-game winning streak.  Of the 22 straight, 17 were wins.  The run ended when City lost their 1983-84 home opener to Blackburn Rovers by a 1-0 margin.

* 22 in a row -- October 17, 1998 to October 19, 1999.  The now legendary 1998-99 side confounded the experts by blasting their way out of Division Three, combining the short-lived managerial genius of Frank Burrows with the engine-room pyrotechnics of Premiership-bound Mark Delaney.  The run began in less than spectacular fashion, with a draw against Orient, but an eight-game winning streak soon pushed City to the top of the table.  The sale of Delaney in early March had the effect, more often than not, of turning home wins into draws, but the Bluebirds still managed to extend the unbeaten run to 16 by the end of the campaign.  City got through their first six at home in 1999-2000 without losing before Stoke City edged to a 2-1 on October 19.

Note: While every Bluebird fan everywhere on the planet must how hope that City never spend so much as another milli-second in Division Three after May 5, the club have had of late an astonishing run of success in dungeon tilts at Ninian Park.  City take a mind-boggling unbeaten home run of 38 Division Three matches into what we must hope will be their last ever cowshed circuit clash at Ninian Park this Saturday.  City have not lost a dungeon match at home since Cambridge United scored in the 90th minute to beat the Bluebirds 1-0 on October 17, 1998.  I'd bet that run of 38 is a record too.

By the way, City's all-time home unbeaten run stands at 27.  This stat courtesy of Dean Hayes's Cardiff City Football Club: An A-Z.  The run began on April 10, 1939 and ended with that 3-0 loss to Spurs on September 6, 1947.

Promotion / relegation.

Now that City have won another promotion and have managed, in just three short years, to climb out of the dungeon to Division 2 only to go right back down and now right back up to Division 2, you're no doubt wondering how rare such a feat might be.  Anticipating your queries on this matter, I spent some time pouring over stats this past week and came up with some data on back-to-back-to-back promotion-relegation-promotion sequences.  Here's what I found:

* First off, this is the first time in City's history that the Bluebirds have yo-yoed between divisions for three straight years.  It's not the first time, though, that City have followed up relegation with a promotion-winning campaign the next year.   Both the 1974-75 and 1981-82 Bluebirds were relegated to Division 3 only to yo-yo back up to Division 2 in 1975-76 and 1982-83.

* Since the formation of Division 4 in 1958-59, 27 sides have found themselves relegated right back to the dungeon following a promotion-winning season.  City are only the fifth such club to bounce right back up a division the very next season.  The first dungeon side to do it was Carlisle in 1963-64.  Wimbledon did it twice, in 1980-81 and in 1982-83.  Carlisle did it again in 1996-97.  If Scunthorpe manage to make the playoffs and win them next month, they could become the fifth club to pull off the feat.

It's worth noting, of course, that the next-to-last dungeon dwellers to bounce right back, the Dons of 1982-83, were led by one Sam Hammam!

* City are the 15th side in league history to pull off the promotion-relegation-promotion treble in back-to-back-to-back seasons and only the ninth to do it in the postwar era.   Here's the list of the ten sides above dungeon level to manage the P-R-P yo-yo extravaganza:

Liverpool - 1893-94 thru 1895-96
Small Heath (later Birmingham City) - 1900-01 thru 1902-03
Bolton Wanderers - 1908-09 thru 1910-11
Preston North End - 1912-13 thru 1914-15
Middlesbrough - 1926-27 thru 1928-29
Manchester United - 1935-36 thru 1937-38
Sheffield Wednesday - 1949-50 thru 1951-52
West Ham United - 1990-91 thru 1992-93
Leicester City - 1993-94 thru 1995-96
Charlton Athletic - 1997-98 thru 1999-2000

All of the ten sides on this list won promotion to the top tier, then got relegated to the second, then won a return trip to the top.  No old Division 3/new Division 2 side has ever moved up to the second tier only to fall back to the third and bounce back up to the second in three seasons.  This particular yo-yoing effect has only ever worked at the top and bottom of the league pyramid.  Walsall could be the first to do it, though, should they win the Division 2 playoffs next month.

On out poor recent away form.

Working on putting City's abysmal away form into some kinda big-deal perspective.  Figure my best bet is to go for the statistical angle.

So, here goes.  Should City lose at Hartlepool, they will finish with an away mark of 7 wins, 6 draws, and 10 defeats, or three games under .500 as they'd say here in the States.  OK, let's put this in some historical framework.  If City does finish with three more away losses than wins, they'd become only the third automatic promotion side to go up in the last decade with so many more away losses than wins.  As 67 sides have won automatic promotion in the last 10 seasons (counting this year in the 10), this would mean that City could wind up with the 65th best away form of the 67. Says something.

A curiosity in these stats is that the two worst sides on this list of 67 both finished the season unbeaten at home!  (And, amazingly enough, they're the only two on the list of 67 to do so.  A bit bizarre or what?!)  Bury went up automatically in 1996-97 while compiling a frightful 6-7-10 mark away from Gigg Lane, but went 18-5-0 at home.  Macclesfield went up automatically in 1997-98 in spite of a rubbish away record of 4-9-10.  They made up for it, though, by turning in a blistering 19-4-0 performance at home.  So, should City win or draw at home this weekend and lose at Hartlepool, the three worst away sides on the list of 67 would be the only three to go unbeaten at home as well.

So, let's theorize.  Sides that know that their bread is buttered at home, who know they'll never lose on their own turf, who know they can smack opponents silly in their own playpen will fall back on that home superiority, let up just a bit away and pay for it with not-much-better-than-midtable away form.  So what if we lose or just scrape a point away, we're at home this weekend and that's three points in the bag!  How else explain Bury at home in 1996-97?  At Gigg Lane, a magical 39 goals scored and only seven conceded, while away a dismal 23 scored and 31 conceded.  Or Macclesfield the next year.  At home, pure magic, 40 scored to 11 conceded, while away a tedious 23 and 33.  Or City this year: 53-19 at home, 38-35 away.  All put Jekyll and Hyde to shame. 

As City is on the verge of joining these two sides in the Jekyll and Hyde category, how do you explain this hot-and-cold side to City performances?  Is it all just psychological?  Is it having a game plan for Ninian Park and no plan for away matches?  Or is it just down to a lack of defending hat's not so worrying when playing semi-full tilt boogie offensive football at home?  It's something that needs sorting.  If it isn't City could easily end up like Bury and Macclesfield.  Bury finished 17th the year after automatic promotion then got relegated the next year.   Macclesfield got relegated right away.

John Heyda
in Middletown, Ohio USA

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Copyright Michael Morris 2001.