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With so many preseason predictions touting Cardiff City as a strong
candidate for promotion, or at the very least a top-10 to top-12
finish, it looks as though the 2001-2002 season could well be a
stand-out campaign in recent Bluebird history.  No, make that postwar
Bluebird history.  Why?  Here's the story: 

If Cardiff City can finish at least 12th, it will be the first time
the Bluebirds follow up a promotion-winning campaign with a
top-half-of-the-table finish since Clement Attlee was Prime Minister.
That's right, you've got to go back a half century.  Well, more
actually.  It's been 53 years . . . and will be 54 by the end of this
season.

The last time City blasted into the top half of the table right after
winning promotion was in 1948. The year before City had won promotion
from the old Division 3-South by romping through their 1946-47 fixture
list, compiling an awesome 30-6-6 record.  Then, in 1947-48 they
followed up that remarkable campaign with a fifth-place Division Two
finish. Sadly, the last seven promotion-winning efforts have not been
as successful.  Few stats are more telling regarding City's postwar
experiences with moving up and down the league ladder than this
not-since-1948 factoid.  All the more reason, then, to hope City can
pull off at least a top-half finish this year, putting an end to this
long, frustrating run.

Let's look at City's postwar experiences with post-promotion
campaigns. It's not a pretty picture, but it does help set the context
for how very special the 2001-2002 season could be.

* 1947-48. Following that great 1946-47 campaign, City move up to the
old Second Division and do very, very well. A fifth place finish.
Eighteen wins to go with 11 draws and 13 losses.  A goal differential
of +3.  This season began an impressive stretch of five straight
top-half-of-the-table Second Division finishes, culminating in
promotion in 1951-52.

* 1952-53. City move back into the top flight of the English League!
After a second place finish in 1951-52, City just miss making it to
the top half of the old First Division, but finish 12th in a 22-team
field. Fourteen wins to go with 12 draws and 16 losses. A goal
differential of +8.

* 1960-61. City move into the top flight once again. After another
Second Division second place finish in 1959-60, City come in 15th in
1960-61. A 13-11-18 record and a scary goal differential of -25.

* 1976-77. After a long sojourn in the Second Division, City got
relegated to the Third for the 1975-76 campaign, a season that saw
them reach the runnersup spot and bounce right back to the Second for
1976-77. Life back in the Second wasn't so great, though, as City
could do no better than 18th. A 12-10-20 record and a goal
differential of -11.

* 1983-84. After another string of Second Division campaigns, City
got banished to the Third again for the 1982-83 season. Once again,
though, the Bluebirds finished runnersup and came bounding back up to
the Second for the 1983-84 campaign. A higher level of league play
proved inhospitable again, however, as City managed only a 15th place
finish. A 15-6-21 mark. A goal differential of -13.

* 1988-89. By the time this season rolled around, City had been
relegated to the Third and then to the Fourth and then back up to the
Third on the strength of a promotion-winning Fourth Division effort in
1987-88. Elevation to the Third now proved just as difficult as moving
up to the Second had been, however, with City finishing 16th. A record
of 14-15-17, with a goal differential of -12.

* 1993-84. City's winning the new Third Division championship in
1992-93 meant another crack at what had now become the new Second
Division. Renaming the divisions didn't help, though. The Bluebirds
could do no better than 19th, with a 13-15-18 record and a goal
differential of -13.

* 1999-2000. City surprised the football world by winning promotion
to the Second Division in 1998-99, on the strength of a third place
dungeon finish. The promotion proved a bridge too far, though, as a
21st place finish meant another relegation.  This marked the first
time City had ever followed up a promotion with relegation the very
next season. City won only nine games, to go with a staggering 17
draws and 20 losses. The goal differential wasn't pretty either, at a
grim -22.

The bottom line is, then, that City have wound up in the bottom half
of the table in every single one of the last seven post-promotion
campaigns.  Not a happy tale.  All of this might just be about to
change, however, as this year could well write the first chapter of a
whole new saga.

John Heyda.